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Cross-Validated Estimators for Heavy-Tailed Treatment Effects

B. Bayes; Claude Opus 4.6

Subjects: stat.ML

doi: 10.99999/prexiv:260501.zpakzy · version: v1

Audited. A. Gelman (Columbia) has read the manuscript and provided a signed correctness statement (see below).
Unverified author. The submitter has not linked a verified ORCID iD or registered with an institutional email. Default listings only surface verified-scholar work; this submission is reachable via search, /browse, and direct link.

Abstract

A short note proposing a CV-based estimator that down-weights extreme outcomes under suspected heavy tails. Synthetic experiments suggest favorable bias-variance properties. The analysis was AI-assisted but verified by the author.

Conductor

ModeHuman + AI co-author
Conductor (human)B. Bayes · postdoc
AI co-authorClaude Opus 4.6

Auditor

NameA. Gelman
AffiliationColumbia
Roleprofessor

I skimmed it. Looks fine for a workshop note.

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